Lee Lorenzen Says Facebook is Worth $100 Billion–uh huh prove it.

Since I don’t think FB is worth $15 billion okay $100 billion?  Okay prove it.  I’ve been asked to take good notes…dern where are the coffee refill faeries when I need them?

Lee Lorenzen of Altura Ventures Genesis … well he gave props to my curmudgeon panel … nice.  We really were the warm up band for this weren’t we?

Lee saw the potential of Facebook and decided to start using the tools to build connections.  Used groups to build connections.  Stalking folks to build connections.

Now let’s get to the meat of it.  Why is it worth $100 billion?

Sure, willing buyers and sellers determine a value.  Uh huh. Still…doesn’t a value really come down to revenue or it will collapse?  Come on let’s not forget, if FB users bolt (next shiny thing)…what is the value then?

With Web 1.0 apps, people needed to work and assume as if you’re the only site on the web.  You have to have users fill in all their information. Now Facebook apps don’t have this problem.  A lot of data is already there.  Lee is talking about the Birthday Calendar app (you know I was just thinking about adding that one…like wishing people a happy b-day)–it’s a good idea.  Leverage the data that FB already has on you, and make something great.  A birthday calendar is a good tool.  Now, I’d also like to see a conference calendar, but that also has the white page problem.

Ugh, half way through his time and just getting to the meat of it.  Crud, can I type that fast?  Teresa posted the Word doc that Lee is speaking from on the WCF blog.

Using the analogy of a farmer owning land with oil beneath it.  As a farm, not worth so much (oil seeps and such), but to an oil company…but the farmer can’t extract the oil himself (or could he?)

Google has tried to crush others (YouTube, Skype…) and has failed (gee I like Gtalk).  Google is just search?  Well, email too, but okay I’ll go with that.

Are the fact that email, groups, pictures, etc suck on Facebook strengths just because there they are on the social graph?  Hmm, they might suck, but they have data and users.  Hmm.

Pointless apps…part of dating and flirting ritual (yes, that is true, doesn’t take an anthro major to figure that out–but good thing I am one).

LinkedIn vs Facebook (or Plaxo) … yeah I’m on LinkedIn, but no I don’t go there often, nor do I find it useful.  Plaxo is useful, though.  What about the parents being on Facebook with their kids.  Yeah you know I have Facebook friends who are the kids of friends.  Honestly I don’t make any kind of habit to checking out their profiles (well they don’t play Scrabulous with me ).

What about the youth of the management team?  I think this is a valid critique.  Zuckerberg needs better mentoring (imho).  Even Lee had his FB account turned off for "accidental" spamming.  Now, what about being able to download your contacts?  Lee is in favour of it, so am I.  What about a connector to Outlook?  What about being able to sent FB e-mail via Outlook?  Okay maybe that’s a bad idea.  Or is it?

Okay … now, finally, the why:

Growing. Getting ad revenue.

Comparing Facebook to Windows … how/why Facebook can win (I suggest downloading the Word doc, btw).  There is some good thinking to this…

Is Facebook addictive–Facecrack/Crackbook?

"Facebook as addictive as porn"–Lee

Value is based on future, not current earnings…

Microsoft is valued at $310 (but they make real stuff) Google: $218 billion … well I might suggest that Google is over-valued, but I’m not an expert in finance.

The whole premise is based on continued user growth and advertising.  I’m still, still not convinced that Facebook can maintain its user base.  It’s still a house of card to me.  But, given the inertia that FB has right now, well some of those cards might be glued together…

Would adding web search do it?  Would that bring in a revenue stream.  Yeah I bet that Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft are jockeying for that opportunity.  While MSFT is an investor, I think Google has better search … though wouldn’t it be interesting if MSFT won that battle and used that opportunity to really improve live search?

A FB Mall … online shopping.  Could be a great idea, tie into b-days and holidays.  That might be interesting.

Lee is being given the hook, well there is a lot that could be said, but it’s been an hour and my both my brain and fingers are tired.  Good thing I learned to touch type!